October 24, 2024 – China’s chemical enterprises are currently grappling with a severe challenge: a dearth of orders. The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs reveals a notable decline in China’s import and export figures for the first three quarters of 2024. Specifically, in September, China’s imports saw a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, falling short of the expected 0.9%. Exports, on the other hand, grew by 2.4% year-on-year, but this was significantly lower than the anticipated 6%. This marks the lowest export growth rate for the year and the lowest year-on-year export growth since February 2024.
The reasons behind these figures are multifaceted, with the global economic slowdown being a prominent factor. The global manufacturing PMI has been on a decline for four consecutive months, reaching its lowest point since October 2023. This downtrend has directly impacted international demand, leading to a chill in new export orders for China.
According to insights from AsiaMB, besides the global economic slowdown, the frequent and intense typhoons this year, exceeding historical averages, have posed immense challenges to maritime transport. This resulted in China’s container ports experiencing peak congestion levels in September, the highest since 2019, further complicating the shipment of goods overseas. Additionally, the escalation of trade frictions, policy uncertainties arising from the US elections, and negotiations for the renewal of labor contracts for workers at US East Coast ports have intertwined to create a trade environment fraught with unknowns and challenges.
These unstable factors have not only increased transaction costs but also severely dented market confidence. Data from the General Administration of Customs indicates that in August 2024, exports of inorganic chemicals and other chemical raw materials and products declined by 24.9% and 5.9% year-on-year, respectively. The cumulative exports of chemical industry and related industrial products also fell by 1.4% compared to the same period last year. Within this, inorganic chemicals saw a decline of 23.6%, fertilizers by 13.5%, and miscellaneous chemical products by 10.4%.
In the first half of this year, among the top five overseas markets for China’s chemical exports, exports to India amounted to RMB 57.02 billion, yet this still represented a 9.4% decrease from the same period last year. A closer look at the export figures for the top 20 overseas markets reveals a general downward trend in China’s chemical exports to developed countries. This series of data serves as a stark warning for China’s chemical industry, necessitating collective efforts from both within and outside the industry to navigate through this challenging period.